In case you have been wondering how does the Canada Express Entry draw work, here is how.
To start from basics, you can track the latest draw and the lowest score selected in the draw here – https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/immigrate-canada/express-entry/become-candidate/rounds-invitations.html
So far the pattern has been – one draw every 2-3 weeks. Typically the draw takes place around Wednesdays or Thursdays. In rare cases, it has taken on other days.
The above-mentioned page is updated for every new draw. Scroll down the same page to the section – ‘Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of [date]’.
This section will give you the snapshot of candidates/applications in the Express Entry pool before the latest draw. e.g. if the latest draw took place on 11 April then this section will display the candidates in the pool before that draw. If the draw on 11 April selected 3,500 applications and the pool looked like below before the draw
Do simple maths to find out your position and chances in the next draw as below,
147 (601 – 1200) + 1273 (451-600) + 1662(441-450) = 3082. Since the draw selected 3,500 applications, these all applications/candidates in these 3 ranges must have been selected. Additional 418 applications came through a combination of new applications recieved between 4 – 11 April & from the range 441-450.
The final calculations may not be precise but this will give you a ballpark idea of where your score stands and what are your chances in the next draw.
One more observation: When two consecutive draws take place within or less than 2 weeks apart then the applications in the pool may be less and the score may stay stable or reduce. But typically with every IELTS results, a new batch of applications get added to the pool.
Hope you found this info helpful. Feel free to comment below with additional tips if you have any.